The Pocket Cyclone

Justine Pratt from Creative Algorithms wrote a brilliant piece on the history of mobile app distribution. She is making some excellent points on why despite all the problems, the Apple App Store still beats any other distribution system we have seen so far.

Although I saw the irony in Justine’s title (and I double-checked with her just to make sure its not only me seeing the sarcasm), with the way she ends her post I had a question in my mind: If things get worse, could we actually go back to using the App Store as a passive distribution vehicle? Or different, could one distribute apps without (counting on) the charts as a sales mechanism?

I know I am not the only one with that thought, especially as things get worse through the huge flood of apps we see these days, all fighting for the charts. A really good first analysis was given in Marco Ament’s famous blog post about the two App Stores, so I won’t repeat that here. But I want to emphasize one thought on both the idea of “going back to just using the distribution” or “going with App Store B”. And to forewarn you, it is not a nice thought.

No matter which approach you take, you will be listed in an environment that has a huge reputation with consumers for its killer low pricing structure. You can’t just decide you will take the “App Store B” route and “go back” to classic mobile app prices, $20, $40 or more. If you decide to try your luck without the chart gamble, that is not a carte blanche to set whatever price you want. You will most likely need to slash your pricing very significantly from what you would have done in any classic distribution channel.

Why? Too many small and big developers already did that. The expectation from customers is pretty much set. Setting a price that you would have called “regular” just a year ago will be perceived by your customer base in a way you neither want nor typically can afford, no matter how well you argue. In my career, I never saw a customer being receptive to statements that basically say “my prices are high because I am not selling a lot”. Really meaning “I am not successful”.

A reduced price is the real challenge of going back to classic distribution or taking your chances with App Store B. And while this might sound  obvious, the consequences are much harsher than anybody seems to be ready to accept.Because when you skip the volume triggers of the App Store but still have a reduced price, you have a real ROI challenge for any project.

Summary: Achieving a (significant) chart position these days is getting harder and harder. NOT gunning for it is creating a business and success scenario for your app that makes almost any other platform look more desirable. And I agree to what Marco hints at, if you are a game developer, forget about path B right away. The only exception I can see at this point are highly specialized apps or extremely low budget apps.

So if you HAVE to aim at the charts, then you are part of the lottery game that Justine describes, especially if you are an independent developer without a lot of additional marketing support. Plus you have to get the pricing right.

Executive Summary: We can’t go back. Prices are ruined and success without a chart success will be possible for only very few exceptions.

Had a very eye-opening discussion with a China based developer today. Asking if he is going to buy a 3GS as a testing device, he  told me that he indeed visited a Unicom Shop to check for prices yesterday.

With a sobering result.

“Official” iPhones are sold without Wifi in China and at a price that is 15% higher than the established black market price. Wifi is a killer feature as there is also no unlimited data plan. And with two million devices sold through the black market, this is far from being a sleazy or unorganized structure. In fact that market is well established and accessible to everybody, including services to get you the apps you want.

This failure has nothing to do with Chinese mentality, which I experienced to be a very honest if given a chance. But a 15% higher purchase price for a crippled device lacking one of the most essential features, after such a long waiting time? This current strategy is bound to fail and I wonder who came up with it in the first place. Almost strikes me as staged.

Are you thinking about translating your apps? Think again.

Sometimes it takes a new experience to I ask myself: “What was I thinking before?”

Unpacking my new Droid, trying to set it up for development was one of those moments, where after the first hurdle I was like “oh no”, remembering lively how many curveballs the Apple environment throws at you there.

For the sake of the exercise, let’s quickly repeat how to setup an iphone as a developer phone: Search google for “provisioning”, “iphone developer phone”, “certificate”, “profiles”, etc. Read all you can find on the developer portal. Prepare with large amounts of coffee, blankets and lot’s of time. When everything is setup, search google for “problem with provisioning”, “0xE8000001″, “reboot”, “reinstall”. Prepare to do this every other month.

Here is what you have to do for a Droid: open “settings”, “applications”,”development” on the phone and enable “usb debugging”. Prepare mentally for the phone to say: “DROID”. The device is now ready to be used as a developer phone in Eclipse and with adb.

In all fairness, make sure you have the latest usb driver as described here on the official Android Developer site.

And in even more fairness, please remember the Apple system is much more geared towards avoiding piracy. Trust me, after a few months you will find this normal and not question the system anymore. Until.